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June 2006

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Labour Shortages of 1 Million Workers by 2016
There is a general consensus that the world is facing a falling labour supply due to the retirement of baby boomers. And yet, in Canada, the size of the Canadian workforce is not expected to shrink in the coming decades. Despite the entry of 1.9 million people into the workforce in recent years, there will be a notable slowdown in labour force growth after 2016. Forecasts of future labour supply and demand indicate that there will be large imbalances in the Canadian labour market. We estimate labour shortages of 1 million people by 2016, and possibly close to 3 million by 2026. The failure to adequately resolve this issue would have profound socio-economic consequences, such as stagnant economic growth and lower standards of living.